Rudy vs. Fred for the ‘None of the Above’ Vote
27 April 2007Some interesting Poll results from the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion Journal that show some intriguing Thompson strengths even though he is still undeclared.
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The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows the Republican nomination contest to be highly fluid. Rudy Giuliani remains in front with 33%, followed by John McCain at 22%. Non-candidate (for now) Fred Thompson is third with 17%, followed by Mitt Romney with 12%. Newt Gingrich, another possible late entry in the GOP race, was not included among the list of names offered to voters.
The demographic breakdown among the candidates is fascinating. Not surprisingly, Mr. Giuliani, as a former mayor of New York, dominates the Northeast states, He has 50% support there, trailed by Mr. McCain’s 16% and Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, with 13%. But in the Southern states, where over one-third of the GOP primary electorate resides, it’s a different story. Mr. Giuliani leads the undeclared Mr. Thompson by only 28% to 27%, with Mr. McCain at 21%.
The most striking contrast was between the roughly half of GOP voters who claim to be satisfied with the declared candidates and the one-third who say they are dissatisfied with the current choices. Among those who are content with the current field, Mr. Giuliani has a solid 41%, followed by Mr. McCain at 25% and Mr. Romney at 17%. Mr. Thompson trails in that group with only 10%. Among the grumblers, it’s a different story. Mr. Thompson actually leads with 29%, Mr. Giuliani has 22%, Mr. McCain 20% and Mr. Romney only 10%.
Clearly, the three declared frontrunners are all hoping that with time they can close the sale with dissatisfied elements of the GOP base. Undeclared candidates such as Mr. Thompson will be hoping the rest of the field fails to catch on with voters, opening up a market opportunity for new entries.
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