Thompson Plans For ‘Two-Month Long Push’ After Announcing
18 July 2007CBS thinks they have the strategy figured. What do YOU think?
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Fred Thompson’s Waiting Game
Republicans Remain Intrigued By The Former Senator, But Lack Of A Full Campaign Could Be Hurting Him
(CBS) By CBSNews.com’s David Miller
Two weeks ago, Republican Rep. Zach Wamp and about two dozen of his colleagues were all set to formally announce their support for Fred Thompson’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination. Then, at the last minute, a message sent from Thompson’s inner circle reached Wamp — hold off.
Since then, Wamp has been doing just that while being the most vocal advocate for Thompson, a fellow Tennessean, on Capitol Hill. Despite that, Wamp says he doesn’t know when Thompson, an actor and former senator, will end the “testing the waters” phase that started June 1. At the time, media buzz suggested an official announcement around July Fourth.
But July Fourth came … and went. In fact, Thompson has been relatively quiet since he announced he would start raising money and exploring a bid. He played coy on a “Tonight Show” appearance. And press coverage has been less than glowing, especially after a Los Angeles Times report that Thompson once lobbied the first Bush administration, asking them to loosen restrictions on abortion counseling — a big problem for a candidate billed as the one social conservatives have been waiting for.
Wamp, however, says he’s not worried that Thompson’s lengthy exploratory phase has stalled his presidential hopes. “There’s one school of thought that as long as you’re gaining, you’re still in good shape,” he said. “There are people receding as he’s rising, so why rock that vote?”
While Wamp doesn’t claim to know when Thompson will finally take the veil off his candidacy, he does drop his fair share of hints. Those congressmen who, along with him, were asked to delay an endorsement will be welcomed with Thompson at a July 28 fundraiser in Washington. And Wamp says he knows that Thompson’s team is planning a two-month long push after he makes his campaign official.
“I see right now the plans being put into place for the 60 days after the announcement,” he said. “It’s been like drinking out of a fire hose. You see people being added to this team every week. He’s doing everything a presidential candidate would do without being in the race.”
That fact has proved irritating to some Democrats and Republicans, who have claimed Thompson is acting far too much like a bonafide candidate to still fall under the laws governing a “testing the waters” committee. Federal Election Commission rules say a candidate must disclose contribution amounts and donors once they take steps — be it advertising, raising large amounts of money, or openly discussing a candidacy — that show they are not merely exploring a run.
Thompson has been teetering dangerously close to doing all of those things, but was able to avoid having to file a fundraising report for the second quarter of 2007. It’s unlikely, however, that he’ll be able to keep that up through the end of the current quarter. But beyond that, there is the question of whether Thompson will benefit from the prolonged buzz of being a non-candidate or is waiting so long that he’ll be unable to prevent someone already in the race — particularly Mitt Romney — from establishing themselves as the dominant conservative in the field.
“If I were him I would carry this on as long as I can,” said Mike Collins, a Republican strategist unaffiliated with any presidential candidate. “I think he’s already shifting the agenda. The toughest thing in politics is to get people to give a damn. Fred Thompson has successfully gotten people to sit down and pay attention.”
But if Thompson has people’s attention, how much longer can he hold it? Other Republican candidates, particularly Romney, have been making strong appeals to the same conservative voters Thompson is said to attract. And Romney has done reasonably well for himself, rising to the top of polls in New Hampshire and Iowa.
“There is a cost of lost opportunity — while he’s not actively engaged in the race, his active opponents, particularly Mitt Romney, are going full speed ahead with their strategy,” said Tony Fabrizio, a longtime Republican pollster. “By delaying it, they are in fact setting themselves to be hoisted upon their own petard in terms of expectations.”
The effects of Thompson going so long without a full campaign organization may be starting to show. When the Los Angeles Time story broke, Thompson’s staff first denied it outright. A few days later, Thompson, in a radio interview and a letter posted online, did not give a direct answer about the accusations, but noted that in his career as a lawyer, he often represented some unsavory people — a “horrible” response, Fabrizio said: “It sounded dodgy and you cannot be the straight-talking Ronald Reaganesque candidate and be lawyerly about it.”
Fabrizio said that if he were advising Thompson, he’d tell him to get in the race now, and make Romney his immediate target, noting that every day Thompson isn’t in the race is another day where Romney’s organization grows and more donors commit to the Massachusetts governor. If Thompson is planning on making a late entry, Fabrizio said, he’ll have to do so with a big splash this late in the game.
“When you push off your announcement, they’ll expect you to put an A-level show on as soon as you get in and, a few days later, report A-level fundraising,” said Fabrizio.
One independent pollster says Thompson should step up his operation soon before Romney, or even a resurgent John McCain, persuades voters who may be looking at Thompson to come over to their side.
“The biggest problem candidates have in a primary race is when they increase their support, they have a hard time consolidating and holding on to that support,” said Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group. “They don’t know what to do with it. Fred Thompson has that kind of support. He could wake up one morning and it’s gone.”
Bennett said Thompson was given a sort of reprieve when McCain’s campaign went into freefall after two disappointing fundraising quarters, support for an immigration bill reviled by conservatives, and massive staff defections left the Arizona senator’s bid in tatters. The collapse led to a decline in McCain’s support in polls, especially among older white men — many of whom shifted their allegiance to Thompson.
“The problems of the McCain campaign have had an overriding impact on what’s happened with Thompson,” Bennett said. “I would have said up until 10 days ago that it’d be better for him to get in, but he’s benefited from men, mainly older men, turning away from McCain. I look at it and say he caught a break, but he’s going to have to get in soon to keep them on the reservation.”
At this early point in the campaign, however, voters aren’t the only people who need to be won over. Thompson also has to draw in donors and a top-shelf campaign staff, and both groups could settle on other candidates if Thompson’s entry shows no signs of coming. But Collins says Republicans have the patience to wait for the right candidate, especially in a cycle when their electoral prospects appear dim.
“Operatives are hanging back. Activists are waiting to see. And people who have the wherewithal to write a check are keeping their checks in their pockets,” he said. “Only reporters want this to get over with.”
But, as Fabrizio noted, even if Thompson somehow manages to enter the race late yet still raise a lot of money and field an impressive staff, he would lose what might be the most important asset of all, one that cannot be regained down the stretch.
“Every day I’m not in is a day Romney’s building an organization, running ads,” Fabrizio said. “Time is one of the resources in a political campaign you can never get more of.”
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on July 18th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
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