McCain’s Walk v. McCain’s Talk …

2008 election season, Blogroll, Conservative, Elephant Bites, Politics

Since just before Super Tuesday there has been something of an aura of inevitability surrounding the candidacy of John McCain. It now appears likely he will be the GOP nominee for President in 2008. This scenario is not sitting well with many rank and file Republicans, particularly those of the Conservative persuasion.

The problems that Conservatives have with McCain are not legion, but you can see it from there. Immigration, ‘The Gang of 14′, amnesty for illegal aliens, shutting down Guantanamo, whining about waterboarding, confabbing with the Ted Kennedys of the Senate instead of the Mitch McConnells of the Senate, opposing Bush tax cuts and on and on and on. For many, the gulf is so wide they vow they will not pull the lever for McCain in November. Understand, they’re making that vow NOW, in February! They believe so strongly that John McCain either cannot or will not do enough to win them back and that the distance separating them is so vast that they are giving in to a different sort of inevitability. The inevitability, so well known by Conservatives, of being marginalized by their party.

This marginalization is already in evidence from many quarters. Recognizing the likelihood of McCain’s nomination, party leaders and party rank and file alike, have switched from Primary mode to General Election mode and are already formulating and implementing strategies to help McCain win the General Election despite Conservative misgivings. This is widely seen as a good thing since it means the GOP can move to General Election activity, united behind a candidate, while Democrats are still expending time, money and energy in a Primary fight. This is precisely where two very important questions from the marginalization debate arise. The first question is, “Are Republicans really ready to rally behind John McCain?” The second question is, “What does McCain do about it if they are not?”

The question of whether or not Republicans are ready to rally behind McCain is at once, easy and difficult to answer. There are obviously many Republicans voting for John McCain in the Primary and they will enthusiastically support his campaign. That number may even be a serious statistical majority of the party. All of that is irrelevant, however. The real question is not, “Will the majority of Republicans rally behind McCain?” The real question is, “Will enough Republicans rally behind McCain?” If the country turns out to be as deeply and evenly divided in 2008 as it has shown itself to be in the last couple of elections, even a handful of GOP defections will spell disaster for the GOP in general and the McCain ticket specifically. The most easily identifiable potential group of defectors comes from the ranks of Conservative Republicans. There truly may not be many of them. As one writer put it, “A third does not constitute the party base. A third is the fringe!” But McCain himself knows what every talking head of any political persuasion knows. McCain cannot win without them and so he must, as the nominee, unite the party behind him. That includes winning over Conservatives.

The reception that McCain got at last week’s CPAC in Washington D.C. was warm, if staged. Most of the people in the room where he spoke were McCain supporters or at least neutral towards him. Handlers made sure of that and did a fine job. That is to be expected. But it is those who watched from the overflow room that McCain ought to be concerned about. It’s the ones outside the room holding signs while he spoke which read “Stop McCain’s Amnesty!” and “Join Republicans Against McCain!” Most observers agree, and I do too, that McCain’s speech was, at the very best, a good start down the road of bringing Conservatives back into the fold. However, I find myself unable, at this point, to state that he has completed that task or even that he will be able to do so.

The reason I’m on the fence is owing to the nature of the road that McCain and party leaders seem to be insisting on. Namely, that Conservatives must put aside their differences with McCain and rally behind him or else we risk a Clinton or Obama presidency. That is the general tenor of McCain’s speech at CPAC. He acknowledged that he has differences with many in the party. He acknowledged that he needed their support to win and that their differences threaten that triumph. He asked that Conservatives put aside their differences with him in order to work for a GOP victory in November. Conspicuous by its absence is what he did not do. He did not tell Conservatives where he would be putting aside his differences with them to give them a compelling reason to support him. And so, many questions remain. Chief among them is question #2 above, “What does McCain do if they are not?”

In fairness, McCain did say some of the right things. He said “I have argued to make the Bush tax cuts permanent” and that he favored “… judges who inform and not make our laws.” Yet doubts remain as to the seriousness of his intentions since he also has voted against Bush tax cuts and thrown judges just like the ones he claims to favor under the bus. These are not things that he has simply said. These are things that he has demonstrably done. Regardless of your political opinions, one viewpoint common to most people is the truth of the maxim that “Actions speak louder than words!” This is the hurdle that McCain is going to have to overcome. It’s not about his rhetoric, it’s about his record. Conservatives like that he’s against subsidies and earmarks. They like that he’s a proven hawk when it comes to the military. They like all the other things that McCain believes that they believe as well. Those issues aren’t the source of the questions.

What McCain didn’t address with any substance were the questions that matter to Conservatives. Things like Immigration, Guantanamo, Judicial appointments and a relationship with the opposition party that seems too cozy for many. At the same time, the message is going out that we need to rally behind the party’s nominee or else we’ll be responsible for handing the Presidency over to the Democrats. Unfortunately that’s just one view of the situation. From where I sit, it is equally valid to say it is Senator McCain’s views that are driving Conservatives away from his candidacy. This would mean that to fix the problem, if Senator McCain wants to be President McCain, he will need to rally behind the party’s values and platform or he will be responsible for handing the Presidency over to the Democrats. In short, why must I hold my nose and vote for an unrepentant McCain? Why can’t he hold his and become someone a principled base can vote for?

The reality of any meeting of the minds will likely take place somewhere in the middle of the playing field with both groups giving ground. I actually think that’s fair. But when I evaluate the field of play, it seems to me that McCain has a lot farther to go to reach the middle than do Conservatives. If we’re going to meet there, the good Senator from Arizona needs to stop talking and start walking … and soon.

Blue Collar Muse

SEE ALSO: The Patriot Post’s ‘McCain v. McCain’

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Blue Collar Muse @ February 11, 2008