DPGI v.3

So the NYT puts out a story about vets returning from Iraq and Afghanistan with claims that they are a murderous lot and they even provide some numbers to support their case. Problem is, the case and their numbers are complete and utter bovine excrement. Go figure.

Via Hot Air: NYT: Our war-crazed veterans are murdering people — at a rate not quite equal to the general population

Based on elementary (as in primary school) analysis of the NYT’s “facts” there is no comparison of the murder rates of today’s vets and the general population. Here is what responsible journalism looks like, in other words, what a quality blogger can produce that a journalism school graduate evidently is incapable of:

But as usual, I keep asking the simple question - well, what does it mean? How do these 121 murderers compare with the base rate of murderers in the population?

And the answer appears to be damn well.

The only reference I could find for the number of troops who have served in combat areas was at GlobalSecurity.com, citing a Salon article:

Three and a half years have passed since U.S. bombs started falling in Afghanistan, and ever since then, the U.S. military has been engaged in combat overseas. What most Americans are probably unaware of, however, is just how many American soldiers have been deployed. Well over 1 million U.S. troops have fought in the wars since Sept. 11, 2001, according to Pentagon data released to Salon. As of Jan. 31, 2005, the exact figure was 1,048,884, approximately one-third the number of troops ever stationed in or around Vietnam during 15 years of that conflict.

From the October 1, 2001 start of the Afghanistan war, that’s about 26,000 troops/month. To date (Jan 2008) that would give about 1.99 million.

That means that the NY Times 121 murders represent about a 7.08/100,000 rate.

Now the numbers on deployed troops are probably high - fewer troops from 2001 - 2003; I’d love a better number if someone has it.

But for initial purposes, let’s call the rate 10/100,000, about 40% higher than the calculated one.

Now, how does that compare with the population as a whole?

Turning to the DoJ statistics, we see that the US offender rate for homicide in the 18 - 24 yo range is 26.5/100,000. For 25 - 34, it’s 13.5/100,000.

See the problem?

Damn, is it that hard for reporters and their editors to provide a little bit of context so we can make sense of the anecdotes? It’s not in Part 1 of the article. And I’ll bet it won’t be in the future articles, either.

Because it’s not part of the narrative of how our soldiers are either depraved or damaged.

The NY Times Public Editor can be reached at public@nytimes.com.

What makes this worth following are the comments at Hot Air:

I haven’t done the research, but I’m guessing the New York Times turns over top secret military intelligence to our enemies at a rate higher than the general population.

The New York Times: All the Treason that’s fit to print.

I’ll wager that the average US military person tells the truth a much higher percentage of the time than the New York Times does.

After all the US military trains its people in the ways of honor, and rewards their selfless valor and loyalty, while the NYT…

I’m sorry, I can’t carry the comparison any further - nothing about the NYT is remotely comparable to the honor of the US military. Nothing.

Classic case of starting with the answer to your research question, THEN finding the data to support it.