I can happily report to you this morning that there is significant, positive movement in the effort to switch the Nevada Republican presidential caucus to 1/19 instead of 2/7. Your calls and emails are definitely having an effect, and I still can’t find anyone who thinks 2/7 is a better date than 1/19…though the consensus remains that 2/7 is certainly better than 4/26.
The biggest concern about the move still seems to be coming from Sen. Ensign’s folks over at the NRSC, which Nevada Sen. John Ensign is chairing for this election cycle. And now we know why.
“National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman John Ensign (R-Nev.) is pressing Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) to break tradition and steer Republican National Committee (RNC) funds to Senate races for the 2008 cycle,” reported The Hill, a Washington insiders newspaper, yesterday. “Historically, the RNC has done little to help individual Senate candidates in presidential election years, although candidates in battleground states have reaped the collateral benefits of the RNC’s get-out-the-vote program.”
If Nevada moves its caucus to 1/19, it would violate existing RNC rules which prohibit states from moving their primary or caucus up to before Super Tuesday…which *might* result in Nevada being penalized with the loss of half our delegation to the national convention. The fear is that the Nevada move to 1/19 will get the RNC mad at us, which they might take out on Sen. Ensign and his efforts to get the RNC to give the NRSC some money.
So in essence, Nevada Republicans are being asked to slide into the #23 or #24 slot in the presidential selection process instead of joining Nevada Democrats in the #2 slot on the off-chance that the NRSC might get some big money from the RNC…something which, according to The Hill, rarely happens. That’s a pretty iffy proposition, especially balanced against the HUGE benefits Nevada Republicans will gain by moving its caucus to 1/19.
Fortunately, the effort to move the caucus to 1/19 is coming from the grassroots (YOU!) up. Everyone in DC knows that Sen. Ensign isn’t behind this effort to change the caucus date from 2/7 to 1/19. So he’ll be able to honestly say this was a decision by Nevada’s rank-and-file Republicans which he simply had no control over. He’ll be able to, as they say, “save face.” And we’ll have the second-in-the-nation caucus. So, onward…
A couple new, legitimate questions have been raised about moving the GOP caucus to 1/19 which I’m more than happy to address here.
The first concerns a suggestion that Nevada Republicans conduct a non-binding “straw poll” on January 19th instead of a delegate-selecting caucus. That, the argument goes, would still attract the Republican presidential candidates to Nevada and earn media attention without Nevada being penalized by the Republican National Committee (RNC). The problem with this idea is two-fold:
1.) Such a straw poll would STILL violate the RNC rule. Here’s the exact wording: “No presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting may be held for the purpose of voting for a presidential candidate and/or selecting delegates or alternate delegates to the national convention, prior to the first Tuesday of February in the year in which the national convention is held.”
Without a doubt, a 1/19 “straw poll” in Nevada to vote for a presidential preference would fall under the category of “other meeting,” even if delegates to the convention weren’t selected.
Secondly, the purpose of a primary or caucus is for the presidential candidates to earn delegates to the national convention. A “straw poll” that wouldn’t select delegates to the convention would be of absolutely no use to the presidential candidates whatsoever, so why should they come here? They’d be better off campaigning in other states where the primary or caucus vote might net them some delegates.
2.) The delegate selection process is outlined in the Nevada Revised Statutes, meaning the NRS would have to be changed, right? Well, yes and no. The no lies in the fact that the Supreme Court has already determined that a party’s bylaws trump state law. So we can do whatever we need to do without changing the NRS.
That being said, the fact is the Democrats have already moved their caucus up and legislators are already working to change the NRS to accommodate them. So moving the GOP caucus up to 1/19 with the Democrats won’t result in any new, additional work on behalf of the Legislature. Again, they’re already working on it.
3.) If the Nevada GOP breaks the RNC rule and moves up to 1/19 with the Democrats, won’t the presidential candidates “blackball” us? Fair question.
First, consider the fact that the candidates are already kinda blackballing us. While every single major Democrat candidate will have been to Nevada at least TWICE this year by the end of this weekend, only Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney on the GOP side have been here…and primarily for the purpose of fundraising. Things certainly couldn’t get much worse.
That aside, now consider South Carolina.
Like Nevada, the Democrats also moved South Carolina’s primary up to before Super Tuesday for the 2008 election cycle. And recognizing the danger of the D’s having the national stage alone in their state, the South Carolina Republican Party has already decided to move THEIR primary up to pre-Super Tuesday, as well. The exact date hasn’t been chosen yet only because the SC GOP is totally committed to being “first in the South” to weigh in on the presidential selection process. If another southern state moves its primary or caucus up to pre-Super Tuesday, South Carolina will move its up to before THAT state’s date.
When I spoke with someone at the SC GOP yesterday, I asked if they were worried about the RNC penalty for moving up to pre-Super Tuesday. Their response was, “We don’t care about the RNC, we only care about being first in the South.” South Carolina Republicans understand full well the importance of moving up now that the Democrats there have already done so.
Which brings me back to the blackball question. Here’s the thing: There will be a Republican presidential debate on May 15th…in South Carolina. Despite the SC GOP’s decision to break the RNC rule.
So while anything is always possible, it would be highly unlikely that the GOP prez candidates would blackball the second-state-in-the-nation’s caucus if they’re not blackballing South Carolina. Especially since Nevada Republicans didn’t make this decision independently and are merely responding to the actions of the Democrats. The prez candidates can’t and shouldn’t blame us for acting out of self-preservation.
Any other questions or concerns, please send ‘em my way. And keep the calls and emails going to the Nevada Republican Party. This is definitely one the grassroots here can…and MUST…win.
Posted on March 22nd, 2007 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: Nevada
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