One of the biggest challenges facing political campaigns is playing the Expectations Game with the public and the media. Boiled down to pure simplicity it goes something like this…
Your campaign sends out a press release saying that Joe Candidate will be holding a rally in a local park. How many people do you say you expect to attend? Let’s say you say 200.
Now, let’s say 100 people show up. That means the story will be that the rally bombed and only half as many people showed up as the campaign had anticipated. That indicates support for the candidate is bad. Which means bad press. And bad press, in most circumstances, is bad news. It certainly is in this case.
But let’s say your campaign had said it expected 50 people to show up. Now what’s the story? That’s right. The story is that TWICE the number of people expected to show up showed up. That indicates support for the campaign is much higher than expected. Joe Candidate is on fire. The people love him. He’s got “Big Mo’.”
Which story would YOU rather have written about your campaign? Yeah, me too.
Which brings us to today’s case study of the Expectations Game as played by the not-quite-official presidential campaign of Republican Fred Thompson. Yesterday it was reported that the Fred Heads raised “nearly $3.5 million in one month.”
That’s pretty doggone impressive. It’s more than Rudy Giuliani raised in his first month. It’s more than John McCain raised in his first month. In fact, it’s more than any of the Republican candidates other than Mitt Romney raised in their first months.
But that’s not the story that came out yesterday, was it?
No, the story line was that the Thompson campaign “fell short of the $5 million target his backers initially set in a one-month ‘testing the waters’ of a presidential bid.”
Up to this point, all of the momentum was rolling Thompson’s way. Yet despite the rather impressive fundraising success the campaign enjoyed in its first month, that positive turned into a negative. It was a $3.5 million bucket of cold water on a hot campaign. Why? Because they set their expectations too high.
Imagine what the stories would have been like if the Fred Heads had set their goal for the first month at, say, $2.5 million instead. THEN the story would have been that Thompson’s looming campaign had shattered expectations. He’s on a roll. He’s catching fire. He’s got Big Mo’!
That being said, this is just a minor missed opportunity for Thompson.
Sure, the story *could* have been much better. But remember, the exaggerated expectation number was set by the OLD campaign team which was running the show a couple of months ago. That campaign manager has already been benched and there’s a new sheriff in town riding herd on the Fred Head brigades.
Oh, and they also now have Rich Galen.
Remember, campaigns are marathons, not sprints. And if you’re involved in running political campaigns, remember this little lesson in how to play the Expectations Game.
Posted on August 2nd, 2007 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: National
Couldn’t agree with you more. I have hesitated sending money to Thompson in the off chance he will change his mind and not run (Gingrich is a good example).
I a really getting tired of waiting and would like to know for sure if he is going to run AND what his positions are on the issues. I’d like to see how he reacts under fire from questioners, friendly or foe.
I may not wait until September before sending money to one of the other candidates.
As soon as Fred Thmpson decides to run, I will be sending the first check I have ever sent to a politician….and so will a lot of people I know.
As soon as Fred Thompson decides to run, I will be sending him the first check I have ever sent to a political candidate…and so will a lot of other people I know.
It would help to know WHERE to send such a check.
As soon as Fred Thompson decides to run, I will be sending him the first check I have ever sent to a political candiddate…and so will a lot of other people.
It wouldl help to know WHERE to send such a check.
I am for the first time in my life exploring new opportunities for leadership. I have held elected public office three times. I know how hard it is to ask for money and raise money. Our President has for the most part destroyed his own party. I struggled for extended periods of time to openly extend my support for Congressman Ron Paul, 14th Congressional District, Tx. I gave it a long hard debate in my head. I don’t care for some of his policy regarding foreign affairs. Then I rationalized with myself that people I once voted for and trusted betrayed me by failing to keep their word. Having said that, elected officials are “blessed” with getting constant facts the general public doesn’t. I am not sure that is a blessing because when it happens 4 or 5 minutes before a meeting, the elected official receives new facts that creates a new perspective on his or her opinion about a particular issue.That is called responsibility, having courage enough to switch positions when the facts warrant and justify it. Knowing that, I see decisions being made not based on new facts but for political reasons, (mostly money). Conclusion: I will never agree with anyone on every issue. It would be enough for me to support someone who just keeps the principles of America at the forefront of every decision. The trust factor makes Congressman Dr. Ron Paul my candidate. I count on the fact that I disagree with him from day one on some things and that we might disagree for a long time. It’s better than being deceived for political gain which is what America continues voting for. He’s a real chance for change. Here’s the icing on the cake. I have told him what I think and he actually responds to me.
You are so right about setting reasonable expectations so that the media can publish “better than expected” results for your campaign.
As far as Fred Thompson goes, I am really amazed the guy has raised any money at all. He hasn’t even announced. Why put your money into something that isn’t even a sure thing.
Oh and have you looked into his record?? Is he really the right guy for the job? I think not. Do the research you will see that he is not a Conservative Republican.
My personal choice is for Duncan Hunter. He is right for America! He is tough on illegal immigration and even built the border fence in San Diego that cut drug smuggling and crime by 90% in that area. He supports our military and is a Vietnam veteran and has a son that is currently serving in Afghanistan. He is for cutting trade deals with China that are hurting our country. He is Pro-Life and supports marriage between a man and a woman only. He supports the 2nd amendment.
There is so much more I could say about Duncan Hunter but once again I suggest you do the research. Look for the best choice for our country today. If you would like more information about Duncan Hunter you can find it here: Duncan Hunter’s Website
Krisite,
Take a look at Hunter and his lack of performance for armored Humvees!! He talked the talk when demanding more “styker” steel when he was Chairman, but he didn’t walk the walk. Oh, and he’s likely to be indicted.
Thompson has a huge vertical wall in front of him. If he is smart, he’ll not enter the race and wait to be the VP nominee (Cheney-tall).