MUTH’S TRUTHS

The conventional wisdom was that Fred Thompson’s entrance into the GOP presidential race would blow the field away, including any rationale for Newt Gingrich joining the fray as the “conservative” alternative to the current contenders. Indeed, just two months ago Gingrich told the Associated Press that “If Fred Thompson runs and he does well, then I think that makes it easier for me to not run.”

But it turns out the only thing Thompson’s much-anticipated, much-delayed debut blew away was the conventional wisdom. And on Thursday Newt dropped the big one, telling the reporters that if supporters pledge $30 million toward a presidential campaign by the end of October, yes, he would seriously consider throwing his hat into the ring. So let’s consider the possibility.

Mention “Gingrich” and “presidential run” in the same sentence and the Pavlovian response you’re likely to get is, “Yeah, but he can’t win.”

Everybody knows he “can’t win,” right? Right. Just like that former professional wrestler who everybody knew couldn’t win that Minnesota governor’s race. Or that carpet-bagging First Lady who everybody knew couldn’t win that U.S. Senate seat in New York. Or that peanut farmer from Georgia, or that B-movie actor from California who everybody knew couldn’t win presidency of the United States.

Or that university professor who everyone knew couldn’t win a Republican House majority in 1994. What was his name again?

But Newt’s “negatives” are too high, they/you might say. Well, OK. But it’s increasingly likely that the Democrat nominee is going to be Hillary Clinton. Talk about high negatives! Hers reach Neptune. Even Jack Abramoff would have a shot against her (no offense, Jack).

But what about Newt’s previous wives?

Well, yes. That issue will be a factor in the minds of some people. But Gingrich has already dealt with this issue politically, confessing his short-comings to Christian conservative leader James Dobson last March. “So, will religious voters forgive Gingrich?” CNN mused at the time. “Dobson seemed inclined to think so.”

Me, too. And because Gingrich dealt with this issue seven months ago, it’s now “old news.” As MoveOn.org would say, let’s move on.

Remember, it’s not necessarily the best candidate who wins the race, but the best-run campaign. And Newt Gingrich has been training candidates on the Art of Campaign War for the better part of two decades now. He continues to count in his stable some of the best campaign professionals in the nation today. That he addressed the marital problem so early before a possible presidential run is an indication of just how adept the man is at politics.

But it’s too late for him to get into the race, right? Gingrich swatted that one away last week by noting that the election is still over a year away and pointing out that Ronald Reagan didn’t announce his candidacy in 1979 until November 13th. Next?

What about the money?

Yes, THERE is a problem. When Fred Thompson was “exploring” his presidential run, the figure he was shooting for over a 3-month period was $5 million. And they came up short of their goal. The bar Gingrich has set is six times that amount in less than half the time. Pretty tall order.

However, we’re talking about Newt here. For all his supposed “negatives,” Gingrich is still the GOP’s only “rock star.” Grassroots activists still line up to get his autograph and have their picture taken with him. He enjoys first name celebrity status on par with the likes of “Cher” and “Oprah.” When you say “Newt,” everyone knows who you’re talking about.

Still, can he raise $30 million in 30 days? Well, if anyone can, Newt can. He’s been building a national donor list for well over a decade now. It’s doubtful any Republican in America has a better, more extensive, more responsive donor list than Newt Gingrich. He is probably the ONLY Republican in America who could possibly pull this off.

Plus, ideas matter. And nobody, but nobody, comes up with more or better ideas for solving America’s most vexing problems and challenges than Newt Gingrich. And nobody, but nobody, is better at explaining those ideas and rallying people, especially grassroots Republicans, to his side, his ideas and his cause than Newt Gingrich.

And finally, Newt Gingrich is the Republican the Left loves to hate the most. They foam at the mouth at the mere mention of his name. They will go absolutely bonkers if Gingrich is the Republican nominee. Which is to say, they’ll overplay their hand. They will not only help make him a sympathetic figure to many independent and undecided voters, but they will succeed in uniting the GOP base behind the man’s candidacy in a way others are unlikely to achieve.

In fact, when you think about it it’s not that Newt can’t win; it’s that he might be the only Republican who can.

Posted on September 24th, 2007 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: National