If you’re a sports fan, you know that how you are playing the game at the beginning of the season, while important, isn’t as important as how you’re playing at the end of the season if you want to take home the championship. To win the big one, you need to “peak” just as the playoffs begin. In presidential politics, that time is now. The first playoff game, in Iowa, is less than two weeks away. So who has “big mo’” (momentum) going into the early primary/caucus playoffs?
Huckabee had it, but it’s starting to look like he peaked too soon.
Indeed, the fiscal conservative folks over at the Club for Growth published a list of influential conservative papers and columnists who have now come out to publicly criticize Huckabee, his record, and/or his conservative credentials. The list includes - in addition to yours truly - the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Times and the Investors Business Daily editorial boards, John Fund, Jonah Goldberg, Robert Novak, Tony Blankley, George Will, Richard Viguerie, Peggy Noonan, Phyllis Schlafly and Ann Coulter.
And although I haven’t read all the details yet, a Huckabee supporter supposedly said something about conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh not thinking for himself and being just a mouth-piece for the New York-Washington GOP establishment…or words to that effect.
Talk about stupid is as stupid does. As conservative columnist/blogger Michelle Malkin put it, “What possible benefit could accrue from going after one of the conservative movement’s most popular figures? I believe this Rush-bashing incident may turn out to be Huckabee’s Howard Dean scream moment.”
Indeed, that “fumble” could well be the play that turns Huck’s entire season around, ending all hope for a political Cinderella story. Good riddance. As Limbaugh said this week, “The Huckabee campaign is trying to dumb down conservatism in order to get it to conform with his record.” The sooner this guy exits stage Left, the better.
As Huckabee comes tumbling down, John McCain seems to be going up. Considering how far McCain has fallen from his lofty perch at the top of the hill at the beginning of the season, that his campaign is no longer on life support, although still in critical condition, is certainly a noteworthy feat.
But is the McCain “surge” real? Or is it an illusion being created by a mainstream media which used to love the guy before they had a falling out months ago and desperately wants to rekindle the relationship? I mean, seriously. Just how meaningful is it for a Republican candidate for president to receive the endorsement of Al Gore’s former Democrat running mate in a Republican primary race. If you read the press reports, this was HUGE. But if you talk to rank-and-file Republicans who will be casting ballots beginning next month this was…nothing.
Ron Paul’s surge, on the other hand, is real. As in real dollars. Millions upon millions of them in the fourth quarter. But the big question is whether or not his supporters will come out from behind their computer screens and do more than just enter their credit card numbers on the campaign’s “Contribution” page. Will this “silent majority” of disaffected Republicans and re-registered Libertarians brave cold and inclement weather, show up at the polls and caucuses, and vote?
What about Rudy? I gotta go with Pat Buchanan on this one. The guy is starting to look like toast. He may be gathering big mo’, but it’s going in the wrong direction. Indeed, if Ron Paul’s underdog campaign is possibly starting to look like the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey Team, Giuliani’s national front-runner campaign is starting to look like the 1992 Houston Oilers, who blew a 35-3 third period lead in their AFC wild-card playoff game against the Buffalo Bills that year in what remains the worst single-game collapse in NFL history.
Duncan Hunter is looking more and more vice-presidential by the day. The GOP could do a lot worse in the #2 slot, and has in the past.
How about the Fred Heads?
In the “old days,” when the primary season lasted months instead of weeks, a relatively underfunded solid candidate like Fred Thompson could emerge from the brutal early contests, pick up the pieces from the losing campaigns and unite the fractured GOP electorate as a consensus candidate. But the front-loading of primary contests this time around makes this a sprint, not a marathon. The race could well be over before Fred even finishes up lacing his cleats, let alone reaches his stride.
Which leaves us with Mitt Romney.
Now for all you anti-Romney and anti-Mormon folks out there, don’t get mad at me here. This assessment isn’t a value judgment on the candidate you love to hate; just pure political observation.
After appearing to tread water and sit on its lead before falling behind Huckabee in Iowa, the Romney campaign is coming back, chewing up yardage, and moving the ball downfield in the closing minutes of a tight ballgame.
First, he has the money to carry him all the way through to the end. While the other candidates must continue focusing significant time and effort on raising money, Romney can now focus almost exclusively on spending it.
His coaching staff is first-class and battle-tested. The odds are they’ll be calling the right plays at the right time for the stretch run. You won’t see too many “hail Mary” passes on third-and-inches.
For shallow, “undecided” voters for whom looks are important, Romney looks and sounds presidential and electable. If the flock begins to coalesce and move in Romney’s direction, these weather-vane voters will join the crowd. And the conservative flock, or at least some of the shepherds, might just be starting to coalesce in Romney’s direction.
I noticed it beginning just a couple weeks ago when the highly respected conservative National Review magazine threw its support to Romney. This was followed up by the personal endorsement of the highly respected chairman of the American Conservative Union, David Keene, as well as former Supreme Court nominee Judge Robert Bork.
Since then, congressional Members with solid conservative credentials - such as North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx, Georgia Rep. Jack Kingston, California Rep. Wally Herger and Texas Rep. John Carter - have joined the Romney camp.
And Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman last week joined Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt and Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri in endorsing the former Massachusetts governor.
Oh, and just in case illegal immigration is an important issue to some GOP primary voters, the nation’s leading champion in that fight, Rep. Tom Tancredo, dropped his presidential bid this week and threw his support behind Romney.
This is not to say it’s over. Rosie O’Donnell hasn’t sung yet. Indeed, highly respected conservative activist Manny Miranda sent out a rather serious memo this week calling into question the caliber of Romney’s judicial appointments as Massachusetts governor. So there are still things about Mitt that some, maybe even many on the Right don’t like. And yes, despite the big religion speech a couple weeks ago, the Mormon problem is still a problem.
But all in all, while it’s not quite “big mo’” for Romney yet, his is the campaign which seems to now be picking up steam and peaking at just the right time.
Or I could be completely wrong.
Posted on December 22nd, 2007 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: National
Four years ago I wrote you (Chuck) a letter saying I saw no benefit in playing the two party game and voting for George Bush. I did not think libertarians (small l) gained much of anything by supporting what appeared to be the lesser of two evils.
Four years later, it would appear I was right. You severed your affiliation with the Republican Party when it gave up even pretending to support fiscal conservatism.
But the Ron Paul campaign has excited me. I went ahead and registered Republican for the first time just so I could vote for him in California’s primary. I am more than willing to support any Republican if they are genuinely going to reduce regulation and taxes. And I am passionately hoping that Ron Paul pulls off an upset since I believe he will do just that.
But failing a Paul nomination, if Republicans want to keep me in the party after this primary, they had better make massive cuts in government their central platform. I will not be voting for compassionate conservatives, “moderates,” members of the Christian right, nor any other candidates I am not absolutely convinced will seriously limit state intervention in my life. No matter who the Democratic nominee is, absent a serious commitment to small government, it is not worth supporting the Republicans just because they are the alternative. I will vote third party, or not vote at all in that circumstance.
Now, this may sound pretty petulent, but I think a lot of voters are with me on this. The Republicans have a real chance to pick up my vote this year (first time) and prevent the loss of the many other libertarians who rather foolishly supported them in the past and were slapped around to show for it. But any hint of a return to the last 8 years, and it is definitely over for the GOP.
There’s a lot more to Mitt Romney than being a Mormon, and I’m tired of hearing about his religious preference. With an eye toward the general election, I believe he’s the only top-level GOP candidate whose life isn’t harboring some past or present baggage that would be fodder for the Democratic candidate to use against him. Hillary Clinton, if chosen to represent the Democrats, knows how to fight dirty … with Mitt as the Republican nominee, the Clinton machine’s slings-and-arrows arsenal would be greatly reduced. I personally think Mitt Romney can win next November, and that’s what conservatives should be thinking about.
The most important issue is where the candidate stands on guns. Romney when asked about guns when he was runing for governor of taxachusettes, said he thought Mass. gun laws were fine. That puts him in agreement with the hero of Chappaquiddick. Remember what Justice Joseph Storey said about the Second Amendment being the most important part of the Bill of Rights? Without the Second Amendment the rest are meaningless. The best candidate on gun rights is Ron Paul.
And don’t forget Romney’s push for socialized medicine in Mass. Everyone has to have medical insurance approved by the state. Sounds like Klinton light.
Ron Paul should be our Republican candidate I voted for him in 1988 as a Libertarian Party Member.for president He raised about 9 million dollars in like 24 hours and totaled 16 MILLION DOLLARS JUST RECENTLY, He votes the way he talks He is a choice NOT AN ECHO
I left the Republican Party in l968 when Tricky Dickey became the nominee. I said he was a crook then - you cannnot change the strips on a leopard or liars like some of the Republicans in the race for President
I am beginning to think Bush 43 is just a big spender like all the demos
and repubs now in congres JACK GREEN “The Miracle Man”
Romney-Hunter–The Dream Team———
I agree wholeheartedly with Fritz Ward’s post above. Rather than re-hashing the ground Mr. Ward covered above, let me just add that I have re-registered as a Republican after having changed my registration to the Constitution Party following the on-going Republican debacle prior to 2006. I had been a Republican since I first registered to vote back in 1968, but the Republicans mishandled their golden opportunity of 2000-2006 so badly that I wasn’t going to waste my votes on them any longer. I refuse to vote any longer for “the lesser of two evils.”
My wife also just re-registered as a Republican after being a registered Democrat since 1968. The reason we both re-registered as Republicans was solely so we could support and vote for Ron Paul in the Republican primary. Ron Paul is the only candidate in either party who believes in limiting the Federal government to the powers specifically granted to it by the Constitution. All the other candidates–including the ones who claim to be conservatives–plan to stay with the gameplan of maintaining a strong centralized Federal government such as we have had in one form or another ever since 1861 when Abraham Lincoln took office.
Ron Paul is the only candidate currently running for president who can be relied upon to run the Federal government the way the Founding Fathers intended for it to be run. The Republicans and Democrats in Congress will be in for a real reawakening when dealing with President Ron Paul!
The GOP that I signed on with in 1974 has taken a turn for the left and left me behind. The saddest part is so-called conservatives making excuses for backing candidates such as one of the Keating Five, who shoved through legislation gutting the First Amendment, or another who wears his religion on his shirtsleeve, while holding a record for tax and spend down south, yet others back a fellow who also subscribes to questionable religious truths, while hoping to gut the Second Amendment and creating socialized medicine.
Only one candidate has the balls to demand that the rule book for government be adhered to and is slammed as a nut case by the very people who should be thanking Diety for his presence.
No wonder we’ve turned into the party of losers and hypocrites.
I am an unabashed supporter of Ron Paul. I’ve recently had lunch with Democratic friends who are impressed and voting for Ron Paul (they live in Sun City), We had dinner with an attorney friend, Mormon who also
brought up Ron Paul, he’s very impressed. We had lunch with neighbors for the first time last week. After “hello” he brought up Ron Paul and is
voting for him along with his wife. My sister who’s been for Rudy called me last week and said she’s sick of him and the rest and is switching
to Ron Paul. She is a registered indepent in Oregon and is registering
to vote for Ron as a Republican. Now here’s where it’s REALLY getting interesting. Her daughters’ boyfriend is a Hollywood Producer and Democrat, he is registering as a Republican to vote for Ron Paul as
are his friends.
Basically Chuck, it’s not the computer geeks that are going for Ron Paul,
it’s the senior citizens, the business owners, Democrats, Republicans,
Independents. In fact, I think Ron Paul is going to SHOCK everyone!!!
Go Ron Paul!!! Americans are SICK of the Status Quo!!! And people are putting their money where their mouth is!!!!
I live in a tiny town in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan and am shocked at how many people around here know about and love Ron Paul. I suspect it is because of my big mouth. GO RON PAUL !!!
Being an unabashed reader of most of Chuck Muth’s meanderings, and having been a Ron Paul afficiando from the git go, I find the outpouring of support for Dr No to be refreshing and amazing. Having had the priviledge of voting for Barry Goldwater in ‘64, I feel most only have one or so to come along in their lifetime. Blessed am I having had Barry G and now Ron Paul both in mine. I shall vote Ron Paul, even as a write in in the general election, if need be. BTW, in all my years, I had never made a cash contribution to any candidate. I have now made two to Dr Paul.
Catch Fire With Ron Paul!
Now that four of the leading candidates have spoken out strongly for school choice - McCain, Giuliani, Thomson and Romney - I’ve asked these candidates to demonstrate their courage and leadership qualities by transforming this policy idea into sponsored legislation. They need merely to persuade one U.S. Congressman and Senator to do so. Although there is not enough support now in Congress to pass this legislation, we have the opportunity - on November 4, 2008 - to vote in 435 new U.S. Congressmen and 35 new Senators who favor this legislation.
I think that there is a very real chance that many people who previously didn’t vote will come out to vote for Ron Paul. I have a friend who is 50 and who attended a Ron Paul rally in Greenville, South Carolina. He siad there where many people there, all of them were very enthuiastic, and he was the oldest person in the crowd.
Young people are energized and excited by many of Ron’s positions, especially at the opportunity to EXIT the Social Security SCAM and invest the same money for a much more lucrative retirement. There is going to be a really big turnout of new and previously disenchanted voters in 2008.
A president’s term is four years. Those in the House who vigourously oppose a President Paul and vote to override his vetos will not be back in the last two years of his first term. This is how he will be ble to accomplish his downsizing of BIG BROTHER’S GOVERNMENT.
Only one Presidential candidate has the money, the staff, the platform AND the Record upon which to stand and then mount a victorious campaign…. Ron Paul. And historically speaking, the Ron Paul Revolution is igniting something that will not be quenched. Only time will tell if this is a repeat of 1964, 1976 or 1980. But, whichever it is, it is real.
Ron Paul!
I was born 73 year’s ago just as the disaster called FDR started destroying this country, with more of the Dis-Honest Abe insanity. A cure is now at hand, Ron Paul!
Voted and campaigned for Barry Goldwater and think Dr. Paul would make an even better POTUS.
Ron Paul!
Made my money, bought my yacht and sailed away with my guns before the feds could take them, now I’m back hoping for a restored America and Bill of Rights.
Ron Paul!
Stopped working (and producing) cause I won’t earn and be taxed, I gave money for America’s hope;
Ron Paul!
Violent Revolution or the peaceful alternative; Ron Paul !
Fritz said it best, GO RON PAUL. My wife and I loved Reagan, but have been let down ever since. Perot got our support twice, better a liberal than another Bush Sr. or Dole. Bush Jr deceived us, but NEVER AGAIN. Ron Paul, or as far as I care, another Clinton. Damn the Republican establishment to hell. They can fool us once, but never again.