MUTH’S TRUTHS

Some folks, understandably, are wondering if I’m really seriously looking at an Independent (like Nevada) race against Democrat Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley…or just yanking her chain. I can tell you this much: In addition to investigating the legal requirements to qualify as a candidate, I’ve also been looking at the numbers - with the help of two top GOP number-crunchers, my friends Dan Burdish and John Stanhagen. And as expected, it’s not a pretty the picture.

By the way, this is exactly the exercise EVERY candidate contemplating a run for office should complete. When a candidate approaches me asking for money, the first question I usually ask after “Why are you running?” is, “How many votes do you need to win?” If they can’t give me an exact number…and be able to explain how they got it…I figure they haven’t done their homework yet and my money might better go elsewhere.

So consider the following a little training lesson for other candidates, in addition to an objective assessment of my prospects in a hypothetical race against Madame Speaker:

According to the latest voter registration figures, there are 12,392 “active” voters in Assembly District 8. And based on the overall turnout in the last presidential election year, 2004, we estimate 78 percent of those voters will actually show up and cast a ballot this November. That comes to 9,666 voters. To give ourselves just a little wiggle room, we’re setting our Vote Goal at 51 percent. Which means it will take 4,929 votes to defeat Ms. Buckley.

So how do we get there…if at all humanly possible?

There are 3,622 registered Republicans in the district. In 2004, approximately 82 percent of them turned out to vote. If they turn out in the same proportion in 2008, that means 2,970 will vote this November. Let’s assume for now that no Republican candidate files to run in this race and I end up going head-to-head with Barbara. And let’s be really, really, really optimistic and say I’d be able to get 90 percent of the Republican vote. That would give me 2,673 votes.

There are 2,496 “other” registered voters, including independents, Libertarians, Greens and IAPs. And let’s say 75 percent of them show up and vote and none of them have a candidate in this race either. That means 1,872 “other” voters will vote. Again, let’s be optimistic and say I’d be able to snare 60 percent of that vote. That would give me another 1,123 votes.

Between the GOP votes and “other” votes, I’d have a total of 3,796 votes of the 4,929 I’d need to win (if all of our projections hold up). Which means I’d need 1,133 Democrats to vote for me.

To put that in more perspective, there are 6,274 registered Democrats in the district. In 2004, 78.5 percent of Democrats turned out to vote. Which means in 2008, we can expect 4,925 Democrats to trot to the polls. Or to put it another way, Barbara Buckley could win reelection without getting a single Republican vote if she just holds 90 percent of the Democrat vote and 25 percent of the “other” vote.

Put another way, I would need to get 23 percent of the Democrat vote, holding Buckley to just 77 percent of her own party’s vote. VERY tough.

Would it be possible to persuade 1,133 Democrats to vote against the incumbent Democrat Speaker of the Assembly who will raise their taxes and continue to trap their kids in dangerous, drug-infested, under-performing public schools? It’d certainly be worth a try. And in this case, there are a lot of other reasons to run even if the odds are as long as Jesse Ventura’s chances were to win the Minnesota governor’s race as an Independent a few years ago.

And remember, the next time a candidate asks you for money, ask him or her to tell you EXACTLY how many votes they need to win AND how they’re going to get ‘em. If they can’t answer you, give ‘em a copy of this newsletter instead of cash. It’ll be FAR more valuable.

Posted on March 26th, 2008 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: National