As I noted a couple days ago, if this loud and messy divorce between the Governor and First Lady continues to play itself out in public for the rest of the summer and into the fall, Republicans could very well pay a big price…not just at the state level, but nationally.
Columnist Bob Novak has been covering national politics since I think sometime around the Lincoln administration. His experience and reputation makes any predictions he puts forward something to take seriously. And after doing a state-by-state analysis of the electoral college map, he concludes that the results could well be McCain 270 - Obama 268 - with Nevada’s five electoral votes being included in McCain’s column.
Novak notes that President Bush only received half the votes in Nevada in 2000 and 2004. Which means Nevada absolutely could go to Obama - especially considering the Democrats’ new and expanded voter registration advantage statewide. And if so, Nevada’s 5 electoral votes could put Obama in the White House. THAT’S how important Nevada could be for the Republican presidential candidate. And here’s what Novak wrote this week about the Silver State:
“Nevada (5) - A prime chance for Obama to pick off some Red State electors, Bush won only 50% in both elections here. A significant libertarian turnout here is very possible. Immigration should play a role — given the 20% Hispanic population and some resentment of unchecked immigration, the issue could cut both ways. Nevada, and not Ohio, could be McCain’s most precarious state. Leaning Republican.”
So the national presidential election could come down to Nevada, where the Republican candidate has gotten just half the vote total in the last two elections. That means there is absolutely no room for error. Which means Republicans around the country can’t take even the slightest chance that the Gibbons brouhaha depresses even a small portion of the GOP vote here.
Anyone still think this divorce is just a private, personal matter?
Posted on May 30th, 2008 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: Nevada
Also along these lines if the GOP does not reconvene soon it will lose the Paul votes.
If Nevada hinges on a private divorce proceeding, they are doomed. The real issue is that we have the worse slate of major party choices in the history of the US, in my opinion. If we do not start to get leaders involved, we are doomed. It really does not matter which liberal gets in (Democrat or Republican), the result will be continued socialism. I strongly believe that Hillary will outmaneuver the neophyte Obama and take the nomination. He is naive and placid. He has brought an olive branch to a megalomaniac. She will send him packing, even it it means that she needs a “assination in June”. If I were Obama, I would not pick her as a running mate and increase my security staff.
If Americans are smart, they will abandon the major parties and install a lesser-owned leader. You cannot write in votes in Nevada, so you have to pick from one of the other candidates. If you truly believe they will not win, at least you can vote your conscience and do the right thing. Or you can follow the crowd over the cliff.