MUTH’S TRUTHS

Forget Florida. Move over Ohio. The battleground state for the Oval Office this year could well be Nevada - and that might not be good news for Republicans.

Syndicated columnist Robert Novak recently completed an exhaustive state-by-state analysis and came to the conclusion that Republican presidential nominee John McCain would squeak out victory in November with 270 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 268 electoral votes – with Nevada’s five electoral votes going to McCain.

However, NBC political analyst Chuck Todd recently completed some state-by-state popular vote projections and concluded that a 20 percent turn-out increase in 2008 which breaks 60-40% for Obama “would swing four states from red to blue,” including Nevada. And the most recent presidential poll in Nevada, conducted by Mason-Dixon, shows McCain currently leading 42-40 percent, with a margin of error of 4 percent. In other words, a statistical dead heat.

Indeed, a razor-thin statewide electoral result is far from unprecedented in Nevada. Just 10 years ago, when the state had a slight Republican voter registration advantage, then-Republican Rep. John Ensign lost a squeaker in his challenge to incumbent Democrat Sen. Harry Reid by just 427 votes. And President George W. Bush only carried the state in 2000 with 49.49 percent of the vote, and in 2004 with 50.47 percent. So it’s not much of a stretch to imagine this red state, now with a Democrat voter registration advantage, turning blue.

Which makes Nevada Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons’ very public, very messy, tabloid-style divorce very problematic - not just for John McCain, but for Republicans up-and-down the ticket.

First Lady Dawn Gibbons’ lawyer, Cal Dunlap, is a partisan Democrat with a political incentive to drag the case out and take a pound of flesh from the Republican governor in addition to taking him to the cleaners. Indeed, a few weeks back he filed an incendiary legal motion in the case which included the kind of inflammatory rhetoric and unsubstantiated allegations one has come to expect in campaign “hit pieces,” including accusations of marital infidelity.

Since filing that brief, cooler heads have prevailed. Both parties in the divorce, as well as their lawyers, have reportedly agreed to no longer discuss the case in public and will work to resolve the matter privately. But like an active volcano, the matter could erupt again at any time.

And if the First Couple’s split isn’t enough to worry Nevada Republicans, their presidential nominee appears to be on the wrong side of a signature state issue - the proposed nuclear waste repository planned for Yucca Mountain some 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas. Polling continues to show significant NIMBY opposition to the facility in the state.

Plus there’s the Ron Paul problem. The Republican congressman actually did very well in Nevada’s presidential caucus back in January, coming in second to Mitt Romney. And while his supporters are comparatively small in number, they – along with other conservatives still unhappy with McCain - could help swing the state to Obama by voting for Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr instead of the GOP nominee.

All of which is giving GOP leaders here some Maalox moments. Nevada Republicans have every reason to be less-than-enthusiastic about their electoral prospects these days, which could translate into lower turnout in November, fewer volunteers walking door-to-door and making phone calls, and a dearth of campaign contributions for candidates up-and-down the ballot. And the governor’s low approval numbers - just 21 percent think he’s doing a good-to-excellent job - probably means campaigning for other Republican candidates could be more of a liability than an asset.

Politically-speaking, that, too, presents significant dangers to the governor himself. As it is, Republicans control the state Senate by one seat, and Democrats have one GOP incumbent state senator in a marginally-Republican district in their sites. All other seats for both parties are safe. So as goes that one race, so goes control of the state Senate.

Meanwhile, Republicans are outnumbered 28-14 in the state Assembly. Losing just one net seat in November would give Democrats the 2/3-majority they need to pass tax increases as well as override any gubernatorial vetoes, including vetoes of any tax hikes.

So where is the proverbial silver lining?

For starters, although the governor’s polling numbers are presently in the tank, 66 percent also say they don’t think the divorce is any of the public’s business.

As for Yucca Mountain, while opposition is certainly widespread there doesn’t appear to be much intensity behind that opposition by average voters. As Nevada political strategist Ryan Erwin explains, “When you ask Nevada voters to list their important issues in making a decision on whom to vote for, rarely is Yucca Mountain in the top 10, and never is it in the top five.” So McCain’s Yucca position may not move many votes in the fall.

Meanwhile, plunging tax revenues are forcing the governor to fill a billion dollar hole in the state’s budget which must be plugged per the state’s balanced budget law. And there are only two ways left to do that: raise taxes or cut spending.

Gov. Gibbons has signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge promising to oppose and veto any and all efforts to raise taxes. But he’s been under intense pressure by some legislators, key business leaders, much of the media, and the university system’s chancellor to break that pledge. If he does, he’s toast – and will likely take the entire GOP team down with him in November.

However, if he sticks to his guns taxpayers are likely to rally to his side and Nevada just might stay red. If not, the nation could well end up blue on Election Day - and I’m not just talking about the color on a map.

Posted on June 27th, 2008 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: National, Nevada