As the saying goes, you can’t beat somebody with nobody. And right now the GOP has no clear front-running candidate to take on incumbent Nevada Democrat U.S. Sen. Harry Reid. A look at the potential field, including my personal assessment on the odds on their getting into the race and securing the nomination…
Jon Porter: The former Las Vegas congressman was fast-tracked to challenge Reid until his train jumped the tracks in November when he lost his seat to Dina Titus. Most speculators believe Porter will move on to a life of big-bucks as a big-time lobbyists, but the siren song of DC power and the wide-open field could still tempt him back into electoral politics. Odds: 3-1
Bruce James: The former chief of the Government Printing Office and current Chairman of the SAGE Commission has had his eye on a U.S. Senate seat since at least 1998, and he likely still has the financial resources to sufficiently seed a competitive race. Question is whether the missus is up for a grueling political fight and a return to Washington, DC, if successful. Odds: 4-1
Randolph Townsend: The term-limited Republican state senator from Reno is definitely eying the seat. Whether a Republican with such a centrist voting record - including serial-voting for tax hikes - can win a competitive GOP primary is the big question. Odds: 5-1
Brian Krolicki: The only “announced” challenger and lieutenant governor still has to put that indictment problem to rest once and for all. As long as that politically-motivated hammer is hanging over his head, he’s out. But if he’s cleared in a timely fashion there’s still time for Krolicki to jump in this race. Odds: 7-1
Joe Heck: The natural race for the former state senator would be a challenge to freshman Rep. Dina Titus in 2010; however, word is the moderate Republican doesn’t want to invest all of the time and effort into raising a couple million dollars for a seat he’d only have to defend two years later. A six-year senate term is much more appealing. But insiders now say Heck is shifting his focus to a GOP primary race for governor. Odds: 10-1
Sue Lowden: The GOP chief is perhaps the strongest “contrast” candidate the elephants could put up. Problem is her husband would really, really, really not like to lose his wife and former state senator to Washington, DC. Unless you can convince Paul, you probably can’t convince Sue. Odds: 15-1
Daniel Bogden: The former U.S. attorney involved in those controversial firings a couple years ago has put a number of Reidites behind bars, including wonder boy Dario Herrera. Could give Reid fits with his tough-on-crime resume. But with no electoral experience or ready constituency, where would the seed money come from? Odds: 20-1
Bruce Woodbury: The highly-regarded former Clark County Commissioner has a solid southern Nevada base of voter support. But the Commish for whom the Las Vegas beltway is named has shown no interest so far for taking up residence inside the DC beltway. Odds: 25-1
Dean Heller: Continues to move up the leadership ladder in the House, including that new seat on the Ways & Means Committee. But being in the minority under Nancy Pelosi is no day in the park. Being in the minority after taking out Harry Reid would be a lot more fun. But most folks seem to think Heller will stick with his safe House seat until the time is right to come home and run for governor. Odds: 35-1
Greg Maddox or Greg Anthony: Wealthy sports figures with Nevada ties. If you’re looking outside the box for a candidate with no political bones in the closet, one of these guys could be just the ticket. But no idea if either has any interest. Odds: 50-1
Mitt Romney: It ain’t gonna happen folks. Period. Odds: 1,000-1
As other potential names come forward or drop off, we’ll update this horse-race. But remember kids, no actual wagering until you get into high school and can place bets illegally with the bookie under the football stands.
Posted on February 2nd, 2009 by Chuck Muth
Filed under: National, Nevada
None of them Chuck…did not know that you were an odds maker. Hmpf. There is someone better them all of them…he will beat HR. Hold your horseys and relax…
How about a Race to Replace Ensign?
Hey Chuck, why don’t you run? I have always noticed that the ones that do the complaining ie: Rush/Hannity/Manders etc etc, never have the guts to run for office, all cowards. Only one that had balls was Al Franken, now look at that dufus, he might actually win.
“William,” in the immortal words of Clint Eastwood, “a man’s got to know his limitations.” I know mine. Apparently, based on your asinine post, you’re unaware of your own.
P.S. I HAVE run for office before. Lost. Have you?
If you have any pull at all when it comes to Randolph Townsend, “I move for no further consideration”!*
He has shown himself to something other than a true conservative many times, helping to scuttle the Nevada Public Lands Act, for which I will never forgive him.
Just tonight he was interviewed by channel 2, where he refused to rule out NEW TAXES.
Townsend is another McCain, repugnant to genuine conservatism.
*Quoting his line dooming the NPLA a few years ago.
Porter is too much of a big government squish to win in this state anymore. Dems won’t vote for him when they can get big government democratic candidates instead, and Republicans won’t work for him.
Looks like it’s either Heller or six more years of Reid. Heck would be a great choice, but it’s not likely he could raise the kind of money necessary and I’m not sure if he’d have much support outside of Clark. He should definitely taken on Titus next time.
Heller seems to have been improving his limited government conservative credentials over the last few years. If he continues to do so, I could see him having national money raising capability and he’s well liked outside of Clark. He’s also a known name in Clark having held statewide office before.
And it may seem like a small thing, but he hasn’t taken the poison pill stance on Yucca that so many other Republicans have.
Heller has to be the guy. If not, Harry will reign until he’s very very old.
Needless to say I do not have a horse in this race. However, I suppose if I had to choose I would select Dean Heller. I voted for him in 2002 for Secretary of State and in 2006 for the House. However I withheld my vote for him this time around because of his unacceptable embrace of social conservativism. I would hope that if he did run for the Senate he would alter these policy preferences, at least once he was in office. However I fear it might not be so. Maybe if he was running for an executive position he might. Kind of like how Mitt Romney currently pretends to be pro-life but if he were to become President he would not actually pursue some sort of anti-abortion agenda, at least beyond making the hollow promises necessary to keep the lifers happy.
We need Sharron Angle and we need her now more than ever! Sharron Angle is a conservative with a conservative record. Lower taxes, less government spending is her moto!
Sharron, please run against Harry Reid. Go Senator Angle!
I am a fiscal conservative who is appauled by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi’s sitmulus packages. None of this will help and the economy will continue to falter. We need desparately to get rid of the big Washington government spenders before we will be back on track. I believe we may have to let go of the far right religious conservatives and opt for a more fiscal responsible candidate. Lets be clear, its our childrens’s future that has been mortgaged., we NEED TO LET GO OF ABORTION AS AS ISSUE AND FOCUS ON FISCAL POLICIES.
Heller would be good, but I wouldn’t want to risk losing his House seat. My favorite choice for the job is (former?) US Attorney Greg Brower. Greg has the gravitas, the smarts, the legislative experience, and enough name recognition. All he needs is money.