Silver State Libertarian Leanings

I didn’t have the opportunity to see last night’s Democratic debate, but since it’s the talk of the town right now, I want to give some early thoughts on both sides of the isle. Since we are still a long ways out, look for a lot of changes to these ideas.

In the Blue Corner

You have your obvious front runners, Obama and Clinton. Hillary appears to be in the early stages of “meltdown mode”. Her comments on Geffen and Obama over the last few days were pretty venomous. The anointed one is clearly frustrated by the Illinois Senator. This primary was supposed to be a formality her way to the general. Now it looks like Obama will give her a run for her money.

For the sake of argument, let’s move these two on to the general. As pathetic as it is to say, there are still some backwards people out there who couldn’t stomach a vote for a female or a black man. Let alone a black man who has admitted to using drugs and a fear of white people. While both of these candidates are strong in the primary, they will need to pull some serious swing voters to make up for bigots who will vote for the Republican assuming it’s a white male. At this point, that’s a pretty safe assumption.

The next tier, in my opinion, consists of Biden, Kucinich, and Edwards. I don’t think Biden has a real chance. He has already proven himself to have a pretty good case of foot in mount disease; and the more he is in the public eye, the worse it will get. Edwards and Kucinich will both needs some tricks up their sleeve to get past Obama in the primary. Kucinich has a decent shot simply because he is very liberal. The netroots and the far left should be pretty big fans of this guy, at least on policy.

If we move Kucinich and Edwards on to the general, Edwards is definitely the one who worries me most out of the current democratic field. It is my opinion that Kucinich is too far left for the general public, but you never can tell what may happen with the help of some well qualified spin doctors.

John Edwards is a young, charismatic, well spoken, good looking, southern democrat. Should he survive to the general, he is, in my opinion, the biggest threat in the democrat’s bullpen.

There is only one person in the third tier I know much about. Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico. I heard he wore cowboy boots to the debate yesterday. So what the heck does it matter what shoes he had on? Whether you like it or not, appearance can say a lot about what type of person you are. The types of democrats who wear cowboy boots don’t really do well in California or the northeast. The primary is going to be a constant uphill battle for Richardson. If we look at him in the general, it is my opinion, he poses the biggest threat next to Edwards.

California and the northeast will vote for whoever the democrat is in the general. A democrat who wears cowboy boots could stand to do very well in places like Nevada, the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, and the south. Conservatives should really hope Richardson doesn’t get that far.

And in the Red Corner

The obvious front runners here are McCain and Guiliani. Of all the Republican candidates, I think Guiliani has the best shot in the general right now. As a moderate Republican, he could have some bi-partisan support. Looking at the primary, I don’t really believe a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control Republican has a snowball’s chance in surviving a primary.

In addition, neither of these candidates have signed the ATR tax payer protection pledge. At this point, it’s not a huge deal for them. But the blogosphere is beginning buzz over this. It won’t be long before it is an issue. If Guiliani really doesn’t want to sign it, he won’t. That will be another nail in his primary coffin. McCain has a history of going whichever way the wind blows. When the buzz becomes loud enough, McCain will cave and sign it. That may very well be a nail in his primary coffin, considering conservatives are already afraid he is not who he claims to be.

Mitt Romney is, in my opinion, alone in the one and a half tier. I wouldn’t call him a second tier candidate, but I wouldn’t call him a first. I don’t really know what to make of him yet. Social conservatives may have some reservations about his recently discovered social conservative side. The consensus seems to be that he is sincere, unlike McCain. If he gets that social conservative vote, he may very well be the guy to take the primary.

There is also a lot of talk about Romney being a Mormon. I don’t think this poses a huge problem for him in the primary. While many religions may not me to fond of the LDS church, they will like his social conservatism. Where it may hurt him is in the general. There has been quite a bit of attention given to polygamist Mormon sects by the main stream media lately. If Romney is our candidate, you can bet it will only get worse. The great big left wing smear machine will have America scared to death of evil, polygamist, child molesting Mormons, regardless of how small a population that actually represents.

Then there is the rest. Sam Brownback is probably the front runner back here. As a strong social conservative, he has an opportunity to pull a good number of votes if he can build some name recognition. You also have Tom Tancredo down here who has some name recognition for being very outspoken on illegal immigration. He is about as conservative as they come and with a strong campaign, he may very well be the Republican nominee.

Tancredo’s strongest asset in the primary is, unlike Guiliani, McCain, and Romney, he seems to have a long track record of being a strong conservative. He may very well earn my vote. He is in a similar position as Kucinich in the general, but obviously on the opposite side of the isle. He will need a good team of spin doctors to moderate his “in your face” tone if he moves on to the general.

We also have Duncan Hunter in there. I probably know more about Hunter than most because I lived in southern California for some time, the area he represents in the House. He is a veteran and has a history of being good to the military. These qualities may sit well with the public since they will almost certainly be voting for a war time president. The challenge I have with Hunter is he tends to be a big spender. In the primary or the general, Hunter will need some serious work on his name recognition if he hopes to have a shot.

The wild card here is Newt Gingrich. He is polling behind Guiliani and McCain, but he hasn’t even thrown his hat in the ring yet. While guys like Brownback and Hunter need time to earn some name recognition, Newt doesn’t. Like him or not, people know who he is. A late entry into this race, if he does decide to, could very much be an advantage to Gingrich. When the other candidates are tired and beat up from exchanging political blows, Gingrich could jump in fresh and ready to go. He has leadership experience and foreign policy experience. He will also be somewhat of a new face, having been out of politics for a while. The craziest thing to me is, he may have some good swing voter support. I have talked to a few democrats who remember Newt as being a bi-partisan guy from the Clinton era. If you can’t tell already, Newt is my guy at this point, if he decides to give it a go.

There are more candidates out there, and I still have some learning to do about all of them. I am interested and excited to see how this long election will play out.