MISERY INDEX = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate (lower is better of course)
Check the highs and lows by Party in the WH and Party controlling congress…

Gerald Ford (R)…..1974–1976…14.93 that reached 19.90 by Jan 1975 (Dem congress)

Jimmy Carter (D)…1977–1980…12.60 that reached 21.98 by June 1980 (Dem congress)

Ronald Reagan (R)..1981–1988…to 7.70 in Dec 1986 from 19.33 in Sept 1981 (despite a Dem congress)

George Bush I (R)…1989–1992 ..9.64 from 12.47 in Nov 1990 (Dem congress)

Bill Clinton (D)……..1993–2000…to 5.74 Apr 1998 (Repub Congress 1994-98) from 10.56 in Jan 1993

George Bush (R)….. 2001-2008…from 5.71 Oct 2006 (Dems took Congress 2006-) to 11.47 in Aug 2008

B. H. Obama (R)…..2009 -from 11.47 Dem congress to ???…9.4+ jobless + inflation 1.3%? for 2009 = 10.7 minimum (dem congress)

(Consumer PI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3% in May 2009 before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported June 17. Over the last 12 months the index has fallen 1.3 percent. This is the largest decline
since April 1950 and is due mainly to a 27.3% decline in the energy index.)
REALITY CHECK: Gas prices are now up about 50 cents a gallon with drilling blocked many places so this rosy figure will fade fast.
JUNE 26 >>> Mounting Jobless Claims Force States To Borrow Funds…June 25
Contrarian guru Marc Faber predicts we’ll soon see inflation of 10 to 20 percent.
The numbers will rise so fast because the government “massively” understates the country’s inflation rate, Faber said.
To get a true reading he advises ditching core inflation numbers, including the Consumer Price Index.
“It’s a lie what they publish,” Faber told CNBC.
“If you underweigh education costs, and if you underweigh health care costs, then you come to a totally different result,” he said.
Private sector sheds another 473,000 jobs in June…’Layoffs may be worsening’…
=====
There is no denying, no juking, no spinning…the pattern is clear.
With trillions of new debt…anyone wanna bet the MI will be under 12 for Thanksgiving?
(Imagine how ugly this pattern looks if we add the DJIA & Prime Interest Rate to this data!)
It is what it is…we are in for a very rough ride the next couple of years at least.

http://conservablogs.com/theconservativecrawfish

Posted on June 26th, 2009 by Doug Schexnayder, Ph.D.
Filed under: ECONOMIC